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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
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Tesla Is Years Ahead Of Competitors With No Signs Of Stopping
A lot of the leading car manufacturers in the world are playing catch up with Tesla. I believe this is because many of them simply didn’t believe that Tesla could deliver. But if you look at Tesla’s volume for the Tesla Model 3, there are some significant proof points that the company has. In fact, in December, the Tesla Model 3 was the third best-selling car in all of Europe. Tesla is not just eating into European car manufacturers’ hybrid sales, but also into their gas-powered vehicles as well. The automotive industry isn’t just made up of the auto manufacturers, it also includes suppliers and their partners as well, and in Germany this ecosystem is arguably the biggest. Many of the car manufacturers simply wrote Tesla off as a company that couldn’t execute and one that would never be successful. That was especially true of the Model 3, which has long been the company’s strategy for reaching a broader market and even more important, profitability. Tesla struggled mightily to deliver the Model 3 with numerous setbacks and stumbles, but eventually the company figured things out and started shipping Model 3s in volume and has shipped 400,000 vehicles thus far. Nobody really expected that Tesla would be able to ship 400,000 Model 3s by 2020, especially the European auto manufacturers. So much so, that both Mercedes and BMW have had significant shakeups including layoffs in the case of Mercedes and replacing the CEO in the case of BMW.
Most of these impacts come from Tesla’s Model 3 and the vehicle’s success in selling into the same compact luxury sedan segments that BMW, Mercedes and Audi have the most volume in. The Model 3 is something different and something entirely faster and dramatically technologically more advanced. For example, the Tesla Model 3 Performance was put up against the BMW M3 last year by Top Gear and beat it in terms of track time and braking, which is quite unexpected for the performance version of Tesla’s ‘mainstream’ electric vehicle. The performance of the vehicle is fairly important to brand reputation and sales, but what’s even more important is the experience that the customer feels and the automated capabilities of the vehicle. That’s where Tesla is miles ahead of the competition. Many of Tesla’s competitors are still living in an era where a customer purchases a vehicle once and the only thing the manufacturer does is deal with warranty and recalls. On the other hand, with the initial introduction of centralized computing platforms based on NVIDIA, Tesla has effectively built a software-defined vehicle that is a constantly living and breathing platform evolving with the needs of users and Tesla’s roadmap over time. While Elon may have some lofty expectations for self-driving capability in Tesla vehicles, the company’s iterative approach to software is helping them inch ever closer to a self-driving vehicle beyond today’s Level2+ capabilities. The way that Tesla is able to accomplish this is through a multi-year effort to build their own high-performance custom computing architecture for FSD (Fully Self Driving) which includes multiple AI accelerators. Tesla is heavily using machine learning to accelerate what the car sees and how it can react to it while also adding features like Sentry Mode which give customers peace of mind. The system is not without its flaws, as the NTSB discovered in their investigation of a recent death in a Tesla where they blamed the company, CalTrans and the NHTSA. Tesla’s FSD computer, which to date is still not capable of ‘Fully Self Driving’, claims a compute performance of 144 trillion operations per second, a significant increase from their use of NVIDIA’s Drive PX2 in the previous version of Tesla’s compute solution. Tesla’s new FSD computer has capabilities that have dumbfounded the other auto manufacturers to the degree that they aren’t really sure what to do. A Nikkei tear-down of the Tesla Model 3 found that Tesla’s electronics are 6 years ahead of the #1 and #2 car manufacturers in the world, Toyota and VW. They even said an engineer at a major Japanese auto manufacturer was stunned, saying that, “we cannot do it.” This puts many of Tesla’s competitors at a significant disadvantage in terms of keeping up with the company’s capabilities and how close they could be to fully autonomous driving capability. With Tesla already putting the hurt on them last year, the near future doesn’t look bright for them unless they adapt, quickly. Car manufacturers are scrambling to respond to Tesla, they have been for quite some time. Some are partnering with companies like Waymo, while others are buying their own autonomous solutions like Argo.ai and Cruise. However, many of these companies still do not have access to the same hardware, software and chips that Tesla does, and while some of them have some experience in software, it’s what I would call rudimentary.
Tesla just announced they blew Q1 deliveries out of the water. 180,336 vs. "expert" consensus of 168,000. That's 7.3% better than anyone predicted, and that's with chip shortages and other hiccups.
I don't care if a stock is over valued. I only care if it will be even more overvalued tomorrow, or next week.
Big day tomorrow based on delivery beat. $750 is my estimate. Good luck all!
During this dip, I added TSLA to my portfolio and it taking 50% of my portfolio up from 25%. I sold all my AAPL, MSFT, DOCU, FB, UBER, AMZN to buy TSLA. If TSLA drops more I'll add more.
Help Me: Tesla sold (let*s round it) 20 k cars more than expected. This led to an increase in market cap by 30 Bln. So every additional car is worth 1.5 Mln. Hmmm. Tesla tends to make a loss with every car sold. Any clues how that makes sense?
Tesla delivered 184,800
cars, blowing away estimates
So what does it do to the mid-term profits if demand for high margin cars is close to zero ? And if Tesla turns out to be a producer of only two models in lower price and margin segments which are becoming increasingly crowded ? And if it turns out that newly added manufacturing capacities will not see full utilization in the foreseeable future ?
Tesla is a good company and the cars are great. The business planning has been a bit bet however on a homerun for them, absent of other car manufacturers picking up.
That bet has failed now. It is obvious for anyone except for Cathie and her clueless followers.
Big names will gradually unload of TSLA stock, they just have to. Make sure they don't do it on your backs.
Apple to use Tesla batteries at California solar farm. This could be the begining of a really really old partnership. Could Tesla supply batteries for the apple car? Could other giants see Tesla’s value in solar and kick off that business with more force??? Perhaps there are still news like these that will come out in the following months and musk tweeted about Tesla being the biggest company due to catalysts like this... who knows
As others in addition to myself called yesterday, we saw the bottom. Nothing better than watching shorts lose money. I love it because shorts want businesses to fail which in turn costs jobs and hurts communities and small businesses which depend on the larger corporations to succeed. No doubt Tesla will be volatile for years to come, but I have no doubt it will be the world's most profitable company in the coming years both in terms of total revenue and per share earnings. Looking forward to a good day.
Despite gains from rivals, Tesla still beats estimates. ;)
Pfizer vs Tesla $PFE has $12.24 Billion in cash vs. $TSLA a 600.00 stock only has $19.38 Billion in Cash
Let’s look at Tesla valuation. The real question is how do you valuate a company with the following technologies:
A 15 to 20 year head start on legacy automakers that are all of the sudden “all-in on EV” after ignoring Tesla for the last decade, large scale battery storage for power grid protection being slowly implemented all over the world, electricity Autobidder for revamping the entire electricity utility infrastructure and marketplace, auto insurance which utilizes billions of miles of driver data to optimize insurance rates, home and commercial solar panels, solar roof tiles, Tesla Powerwall home storage, full self driving software, the ability to subscribe monthly for FSD, the world’s largest battery factory which is driving down the cost of batteries drastically, allowing them to provide battery packs to other automakers, the world’s largest Supercharger network with over 20,000 chargers across the globe, (which they are discussing opening to other automakers), the world’s largest die-casting press allowing them to greatly simplify vehicle deign and reduce manufacturing / assembly line processes by 30%, Starlink satellites in orbit which bring internet access to the entire world and will soon also communicate with their driving fleet, continuous and free software upgrades to all auto customers, Robotaxi which could disrupt the entire transportation industry, their own social media network, Tesla semi which will save billions for the transportation and logistics industry, Tesla Cybertruck which uses the same Tesla-proprietary steel alloy used on SpaceX’ Starship, partnering with suppliers to ensure future nickel supply, purchasing companies with future nanotechnology and graphene battery technology, development of recyclable and reusable battery technology. This is all in addition to their existing vehicle lineup which ranges from the fastest production car in the world - Model S Plaid which is 0-60 in 1.9 seconds with 520 miles of range to the recently announced Model 2 which will start at $25k and be available by as soon as next year. Even though vehicle sales have been steadily growing at over 40% annually on average for the last 10 years, let’s say for the sake of argument that Tesla does not become a mainstream automaker. (This despite there being over 1,000,000 Teslas on the road today) and the fact that their annual revenue is already 25% that of a Ford or GM and could easily surpass both within 4-5 years at the current growth rate. How many revenue streams will they have in addition to automotive? Some could even equal or surpass their auto revenue, and with this many technologies that we are aware of, how many projects will they announce over the next few years that we can add to the list? With a forward PE of 100, I am adding to my position at these levels. This could easily be a $2,000 stock within 5 years.
A $60 stock that almost pulled back to almost $30 for no justifiable reason. It's the perception of fear rather than logic. Investors should be focusing on long term thinking instead of short term knee jerk reactions. What will upset you more than anything else is missing out on a great opportunity. It's frustrating. Especially when you've been gamed by the system. But it's nothing new. It's been happening longer than you've been alive. The market makers and institutions can make stocks move the way the way they want. And they do it under the guise of 'correction' and so on. Every time I hear corrections happening in the market over the years by talking heads, these people are always trying to cover their short positions or buy shares after missing out in the previous bull run. That is the case especially with $NIO, $XPEV, $TSLA and $PLUG. These 'tech' stocks have been consistently performing exactly the same every day for the last 12 months. Nothing changed to erase around 50% of the PPS within a few weeks. That's a 50% discount institutions wanted. Reflected nothing on the companies. No news of a factory burning down, millions of vehicles being recalled, CEO's lying about a truck rolling down a hill, etc..etc. The point is this: there is absolutely no reason for the fear. When you see a $60 stock like NIO drop to almost $30, and zero reason for it, there's a huge void of opportunity back up to $60. While all the institutions have been picking up shares, shorts have been coming out like cockroaches trying to yell fire while they are afraid of getting squeezed again. Anyone with the ability to add 1+1 can logically understand what the automobile market will look like when China has a law on the books saying ONLY new-energy vehicles will be sold by the next decade. Who's laying down the foundation for this mass evolution for the next 20 years? $TSLA, $NIO, $XPEV, $PLUG...just to name the ones already leading the pack. If you want to retire within the next decade, you have to invest heavily in the market leaders laying down the strong foundation today so they can continue leading tomorrow. With hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers that will be purchasing EVs just within the next 5 years, the thesis continues to remain the same....no matter how much the market makers play the games to manipulate the stock prices. Just go take a look at Amazon's stock and when their first few years...less than $15. They laid down the foundation while not turning a profit for over a decade. And all the critics could focus on was the EPS, losses, etc...completing missing the aspect of building a solid foundation for the long term profits and actual launch to the moon PPS. Under $100 for NIO, XPEV, and PLUG will always be a bargain if you go just 5 years in the future. For me, $100 is my cap. After each of these stocks passed $25, I committed to keep adding more shares up to $100 at every pullback. So at these prices coming back under 40 is like buying iphones at the dollar store. When you understand the value of something, you don't worry about the newscycle that lasts a couple of weeks. Longs have been winning. Longs will continue winning. Shorts always lose in the long term. Trust the process. Keep buying. Keep holding. Until 2025+.
I don't understand today's continued slide of TSLA given the stock's traditional base of support.
Don't misunderstand me. TSLA is vastly overvalued by every normal measure, but that has not historically been a problem for this particular stock. Its fan base and believers in Musk's vision have always been strong in the face of criticism (and math).
Today there is almost universal enthusiasm for a rebounding economy, a fading pandemic, and a likely return of Tesla's eligibility for the $7,500 federal tax credit. Each of these things should help the company's sales and profitability. I honestly expected the share price to be up or at least stable today.
Have the Tesla faithful lost faith? Are long term institutional investors finally taking some profit? Is Musk selling off billions in equity? My personal suspicion is that many of Tesla's most ardent enthusiasts have had a chance to see and maybe drive Volvo's Polestar 2 and Ford's wonderful Mach E electric vehicles. It is impossible to see these vehicles and others soon to be on the market without realizing that Tesla's moat is not nearly as wide as they had assumed.
Competition is coming to the EV marketplace, all across the price range. Tesla will mourn the resources it squandered on side projects as it let customer service, quality control, and design-for-manufacture fester.
Any advice on holding or selling this. Bought it at 800 and taking heavy losses if I sell. Is it good to sell stock when we double our money versus long term? let me know. genuine investor from past 2 years
I am wondering how many people bought Tesla on margin in an attempt to maximize their gains and have been forced to sell because of this correction. Someone always falls prey to this. But is this part of why Tesla is dropping so rapidly? Because of margin calls.
Mr. Mango To You
When Tesla is selling 5M cars per year and making a profit without carbon credits or bitcoin gains, THEN this company will deserve a $200B market cap - 50% of what it has now! So if they sell 1M cars this year and grow by 50% per year for 4 to 5 years THEN their stock will be priced correctly at $300.
It was a perfect storm of short squeeze, stock split, sp 500 index addition. Tesla simply isn’t worth all other car companies combined. Maybe someday, but not when it is only selling 750k cars this year. This was a tech bubble.
I bought at $800. I’m very new to the market, just learning what I can with a little bit of money I’ve saved.
Not sure if I should hold or sell
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