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BioNTech SE (BNTX)
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This is an interesting investment and my first with a vaccine discovery. Some here bought early before Phase II. Good for you. I’m very old and conservative but I bought before Phase III which still was very risky. Since then nearly all events have been positive, This is now the most proven answer to the virus crisis and collaboration with Pfizer put BNTX on the world map.Yet the share price response since the first FDA approval has been either small or down. Totally opposite a normal price reaction to a proven novel product with worldwide demand. Vaccine developers have always been wildly high risk bets until approved and accepted. Any thoughts on why this continues to collapse since approved?
JNJ one-shot vaccine entered the playing field ...
If you had a large number of employees or an army what Vaccine would you use
How is it possible BNTX price is down 3.8 % ! with very low volume?? Big sellers??
I thought we are getting good news. Normal temperature storage, increase production, more demand....but went down the most among all vaccine company.
A lot of discussion regarding what an appropriate PE valuation should be for a Bio-tech that is not yet profitable. (Most are not due to high R&D early costs. This may help ).
Since we seem to swing with Moderna, this analogy may be signify the value of a + or - movement tomorrow morning.
What is your guess on Moderna’s earnings report, positive or negative ?
COGS for MRNA was 31% -
Here are some interesting numbers it appears MRNA delivered 16mln total doses in 2020 -
As of End February Globaly MRNA has delievered 60mln doses - That means 44mln in First 2 months of 2021.
Of the 60mln 55mln were to USA. So limited sales overseas.
On Jan 31 Pfizer reported total deliveries of 65mln doses of which 29mln were in the USA. So 36mln doses.
MRNA spent about 1.3bln on R.D. Pfizer said total RD across all its products was about 2.5bln so BNTX RD for covid vaccine will be less than MRNAs although BNTX also has a flu vaccine with Pfizer which some costs will be allocated.
Given EU increase reliance on PFE/BNTX and Given lack of acceptance of the primary producing competitor to EU market - I would say 2021 is off to an excellent start - whereby PFE/BNTX has similar market share in US and a much greater market share in EU as well as elsewhere.
AZN now is for Eastern Europe - Latin America
Same for J&J and Novax -
So its really the ROW market share that is up for grabs and it will all be production based. Although for PFE/BNTX - Is now approved in 58 countries by far more than any other manufacturer.
Stock market is showing signs of bubble burst. So, 50% of my portfolio is in BNTX and rest in cash. If I buy other stocks, I am not holding them long. Looks like a big correction coming. Am I wrong?? Ofcouse, no one predicts the stock market. But It is showing nervousness.
Hey guys while keeping this stock up, look at this:
The covid nasal spray is doing a very very good job here. Fresh news, one hour ago.
Today, the news magazine DER SPIEGEL published an interesting interview with Ugur Sahin on possible booster shots and the ability of the Biontech vaccine to prevent infections.
Ugur was asked by DER SPIEGEL whether we will need a booster shot next year at the latest, i.e. a third vaccination dose targeted at new mutants?
Ugur answered: "I think so. If only to maintain broad vaccination protection in the population. We collect long-term data for this purpose. We can already begin to put some of the pieces of the puzzle together today. The transmission of the infection is probably prevented by antibodies. And we know that the antibodies slowly decline from the sixth month after vaccination. Vaccines also induce so-called memory T cells, which provide additional, probably longer-lasting protection. Mutants can evade recognition by T cells poorly, so vaccinated people might be protected from a severe course for years, but at some point no longer from a mild illness. And one will also be contagious again at least at some point, when the protection is only partially present. About every two years, there could then be a booster vaccination, adapted to the variants that are currently on the way. Similar to the flu. That could be the new normal for us."
With regard to booster shots, an issue I have raised in a recent post on this board, he said:
"Booster immunisations are basically not new and have been tested in vaccines against other infectious diseases. We also have no evidence that high antibody titres against the spike protein could be harmful. Nevertheless, it is important to test and examine this question clinically. We want to know whether the booster vaccination is as safe as the standard vaccination. This is currently being done in a study in the USA and soon also in Germany."
To the queston whether a third vaccination with the current vaccine would possibly protect against a whole series of new variants, including those that don't even exist yet, he said:
"That's what we're trying to find out now with the study. We know that someone who has already had a Covid 19 infection and then gets his first vaccination develops an enormous amount of antibodies. We expect the same with a third booster vaccination. I have the hope that such a very high antibody titre could also work better against new variants that partially escape a weaker immune response. This could significantly speed up the fight against newly emerging variants, it would be much faster than adapting the vaccine to a new variant each time. In addition, we also want to test a vaccine adapted to the South African variant."
Also interesting, but not yet mentionned in the interview is that the German Government has big plans for a stronger expansion of vaccine production against the coronavirus in Germany.
State Secretary for Economic Affairs Andreas Feicht, the head of the the new "Taskforce Vaccine Production" established by the German government told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur:
"We are not alone in the world, we bear great responsibility in Europe and internationally, especially with regard to the poorer countries. Our goal is therefore vaccines "made in Germany" on a scale that can also contribute significantly to supplying the world's population."
The task force is to start its operational business next Monday. It is to take countermeasures with the companies concerned in good time if there is a threat of bottlenecks in vaccine production. There had been massive criticism of the slow start of the vaccination campaign in Germany.
Fair Value $ 115. 2021 Net Profit Margin: 26%, Tax Rate : 15 %.
We are underestimating R&D Expense and Capital Investments, and Overestimating Revenue. Revenue will be Net Revenue of Sales. That is, the company (BNTX) will have Revenue Sharing contracts with Supply Partners that Share Sales Revenue. That is how you motivate Suppliers to Push their Operations.
If yearly booster dose is required (not proven yet) this will be insane stock. No matter how many vaccines come everyone will want the best:BNTX. They will probably pay $60 or may be insurance will cover.
The recent approval by FDA to store the vaccine in normal refrigeration up to 2 weeks is huge.
When Q4 results come, we will hear more about all the plans ahead.
God Bless the British-
The British have started a study to See if using a different second shot from the original vaccine can boost efficacy over the original.
So they will be testing the original efficacy of the AZN (62%)
Against the Original Efficacy of the PFE (94%)
Then 1/2 AZN - 1/2 PFE - x%
1/2 PFE 1/2 AZN - y%
Lets try and take a wild prediction of what the results might be.
After our study we conconcluded that mixing AZN with PFE improved efficacy -
It had limited downside of the Pfizer vaccine reducing its efficacy by say 10%.
We therefore recommend that people who took AZN be given a second dose of Pfizer.
This month, a team of vaccinologists from Oxford University began recruiting 800 or so people age 50 or older for a complex study to see whether vaccine switching could actually work.
Pfizer plans to file for full FDA approval of COVID-19 vaccine in April 2021!
Very troubling statement out of Novax - They seem to know when their studies will be unblinded - This is a first for any of the vaccine makers - remember when Moderna and BNTX and AZN and J&J were asked - nobody said less than 35-60 days. Especially since they have not even dosed the people fully in US trial yet -
They just finished enrollment last week.
Feb 24 (Reuters) - Novavax Inc expects data from a late-stage U.S. trial of its COVID-19 vaccine at the start of April, after which it will apply for emergency use authorization, the drug developer's R&D head Gregory Glenn said on Wednesday.
"We are expecting results right in the beginning of quarter two and shortly thereafter we will be filing for EUA (in U.S.)," he said at a Washington Post online event.
Three Tier System – Pfizer/BNTX – Tier I – Sputnick, China’s Sinopharm and Sinovac are Tier II – Not suitable for immediate use
AZN and Novax – Tier III- Also they mention big Pfizer/BNTX order soon.
South Africa’s health minister said on Tuesday that government advisers had organised COVID-19 vaccines into three groups and those considered for “immediate use” were the Johnson & Johnson (J&J), Pfizer and Moderna shots.
The country started rolling out the J&J vaccine in a research study targeting healthcare workers last week and hopes to receive Pfizer doses in the coming months.
It has paused AstraZeneca vaccinations because of a small trial showing the British company’s shot offered minimal protection against mild to moderate illness caused by the dominant local coronavirus variant.
Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said the government had placed “huge orders on J&J and Pfizer which will be finalised in the next few days and announced when concluded”, adding that discussions with Moderna were ongoing.
Mkhize said the Ministerial Advisory Committee on vaccines had placed Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine and alternatives from China’s Sinopharm and Sinovac in a second group where South Africa is interested but requires more technical information.
Non-disclosure agreements had been signed with manufacturers of vaccines in the second group and negotiations were advanced, he added, saying: “They have offered several millions of vaccines subject to the finalisation of the outstanding information and price negotiation.”
A third group where vaccines “may not be suitable for immediate use in South Africa” includes the AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccines.
Mkhize said South Africa would be selling, not donating, its stock of AstraZeneca shots to the African Union.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ownership in BNTX / BioNTech SE
2021-02-16 - Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 1,038,674 shares of BioNTech SE (US:BNTX) with total holdings valued at $85,000,000 USD as of 2020-12-31.
Stock market is getting reality check. Yesterday I sold all but BNTX. Next few days and weeks crucial. A very big correction maybe. This is when people running away with their money must find a real company to invest: BNTX is one of them. IMHO. I am watching the market closely. You never know how it behaves. Foe long economy, life, livelihoods was one world and stock market in Lala world. My two cents👌🙏
Hi, does anybody here know when is the next earning date for bntx? thanks.
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