|Day's range||83,666.7109 - 84,954.4062|
|52-week range||69,069.0000 - 88,318.0000|
A poll released Monday by Ibope showed far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro would tie Fernando Haddad, the left-wing candidate from Brazil's Workers Party, in a likely second-round runoff. Bolsonaro is seen as a more market-friendly candidate than Haddad given his economic platform, says Alberto Ramos, head of Latin American economics at Goldman Sachs.
Emerging-market currencies rounded off a winning month, defying the prospect of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as more developing-nation central banks deployed tighter monetary policies to backstop local markets. Trade tension between China and the U.S. escalated as some $200 billion of Chinese products became subject to U.S. tariffs on Sept. 24, on top of $50 billion of existing levies.
Emerging-market stocks, currencies and bonds were unfazed by an escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute, rising for a second week as the dollar retreated. The Chinese yuan had its first weekly gain this month as Premier Li Keqiang said the country won’t devalue its currency in order to make its exports more competitive amid trade tension with the U.S.
This was supposed to be Brazil’s breakout year. During the ensuing 12 months, $1.3 billion poured into Latin America’s largest economy through exchange traded funds, making it a top-10 nation among investors. The biggest of them, BlackRock’s MSCI Brazil ETF, suffered its worst outflows since inception in 2000.
Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro leads the polls heading into the first round of Brazil's presidential election. Other candidates, meanwhile, are seen as unwilling or unable to move forward with much-needed economic reforms to jumpstart the Brazilian economy. "The market would like to see a market friendly candidate win, but that's more of a dream than reality," says Goldman Sachs' head of Latin America economics.
Forget all the talk about an escalating trade war damaging the U.S. economy or that the coming midterm elections threaten to throw the political system into disarray. In fact, they are loading up on super-safe cash-like instruments as bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates two more times before year-end reach a new high. Demand at the U.S. Treasury's bill auctions this week were on the high side, especially for 52-week bills.
Brazilian markets dropped as a poll showed left-wing candidates gaining support while those favored by investors stalled out with less than a month to go until the presidential election. The real and the benchmark stock index were the worst performers among major markets globally Tuesday, erasing all gains posted after last week’s knife attack targeting conservative Jair Bolsonaro spurred speculation his candidacy would get a boost. Candidates on the left, who investors fear would backtrack on efforts to shore up Brazil’s fiscal accounts, were the only ones who gained support at a level that exceeded the margin of error in a Datafolha poll released last night.
Brazilian legendary hedge-fund manager Luis Stuhlberger is taking advantage of election jitters to step up his bet on stocks. The "Brazilian market continues on its frantic search to adjust to election odds on a daily basis," Stuhlberger’s Verde Asset Management SA said in a monthly note to clients. The fund took advantage of the Ibovespa’s 11 percent drop in dollar terms last month to "marginally" increase its position on Brazil stocks.
It’s stacking up to be another roller-coaster week for emerging markets, still reeling from a sell-off that drove stocks into a bear market for the first time since March 2016. Central banks in Turkey and Russia will make key rate decisions, with investors waiting to see how far policy makers will go to defend their weakening currencies. Meantime, the near-fatal stabbing of election front-runner Jair Bolsonaro will remain a focus in Brazil.
Last week’s gains may turn into yet another short-lived reprieve as Turks return to work after a long holiday and anxiety over elections in Brazil grows. There are other reasons for investors to shun riskier assets. The trade skirmish between the U.S. and China may get uglier.
Emerging-market assets fell for a third week as investors digested Turkey’s promise to refrain from capital controls and moves by the U.S. and China to restart trade negotiations. Turkey’s credit rating was cut further into junk. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.7 percent in its biggest weekly decline since February as of the U.S. close Friday, while a gauge tracking currencies dropped 0.8 percent.
Emerging-market assets resumed declines as an escalation in trade clashes between the U.S. and China deterred risk-taking in an already fragile developing-market landscape. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks fell 1.7 percent, the most since June, while a gauge tracking developing-economy currencies declined 0.5 percent.
The iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund (EWZ) surges 12.6 percent in July, posting its first positive month since January. "There is an improvement in risk sentiment across emerging markets and Brazil is piggybacking off of that," says Peter Donisanu, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Donisanu notes that recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and some of its key partners improved sentiment around emerging markets and Brazil.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund (EEM) is down more than 7 percent for the year as trade tensions between the world's largest economies intesify. Among the biggest decliners in emerging markets were Argentine, Turkish, Brazilian and Chinese shares. “This really resulted from the escalation in trade tensions on multiple fronts,” says one analyst.
Emerging-market stocks and currencies extended gains into a third day as the U.S. dollar resumed losses amid a lull in the trade war.
Emerging-market currencies declined for a sixth straight week after the U.S. fired the first shot in a trade dispute between the world’s biggest economies. The gauge tracking the developing-market stocks declined 0.9 percent, while the Bloomberg Barclays index of EM local-currency government bonds climbed 0.1 percent.