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How Brexit has impacted UK house prices

Kalila Sangster
·3-min read
The roofs of the small coastal Scottish town of Crail.
House prices have continued to climb since the EU referendum but the rate of house price growth has slowed. Photo: Getty

Despite the disruption caused by Brexit in many sectors, UK house prices have climbed 14.1% since the referendum in June 2016, according to new research by Keller Williams UK.

At a regional level, growth has been driven by Wales and the Midlands. The East Midlands has seen the greatest increase in house prices since the Brexit vote in 2016 — rising by 20.9%,

Property prices have increased by 19% in the West Midlands and home values rose by 20.£% in Wales since June 2016.

London has seen an increase of 3.2%, while property prices are up 6.7% in the North East and up 9.2% in the South East.

While house prices have continued to climb since the EU referendum, the rate of house price growth has slowed. House prices across the UK have increased by 14.1% since June 2016, compared with 28.3% during the same time period prior to the vote.

However, a third of UK regions saw the rate of house price growth since the vote exceed that seen during the same period before June 2016 — Wales, the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, and Scotland.

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The rate of house price growth in the capital has slowed the most. London property values have risen just 3.2% since the vote, compared with surging by 61.2% in the same period leading up to the referendum.

House prices in areas that voted to remain in the EU in the referendum averaged £302,688 ($413,272) when the vote took place in 2016. Since then, they’ve increased by 8.1% to an average of £327,316 in 2021.

However, property prices in areas that voted Leave have increased by 14.1% to an average of £232,976 today.

Just two of the top 10 areas to have seen the highest rate of house price growth since the EU referendum were Remain areas — Monmouthshire, which saw the second largest increase in the UK at 30.5%, and Leicester with an increase of 28.2%.

Newport experienced the highest rate of house price growth in the UK at 31.7% having voted Leave. Rutland in the East Midlands came in third with 29.9%, followed by Harborough (29.2%) in Leicestershire, the Isle of Anglesey (28.9%) in Wales, and Nottingham (28.3%).

At the other end of the scale, just three of the 10 areas for the worst house price growth since the vote are Leave areas — Bracknell Forest (-4.7%), Hartlepool (-1.3%) and Spelthorne (-1%).

Aberdeen (-23%), the City of London (-20.9%) and the City of Westminster (-9.3%) have seen the greatest declines in house prices since June 2016.

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Ben Taylor, CEO of Keller Williams UK, said: “Regardless of whether you voted Leave or Remain and purely from a property perspective, you could argue that Brexit has provided the perfect tonic for the UK property market.

“Yes, a handful of areas have seen prices fall since the vote itself. However, the vast majority of the UK has seen the value of bricks and mortar continue to climb despite the rollercoaster ride that Brexit has been.

At the same time, the rate of house price growth seen since the vote has slowed in 69% of areas. This won’t have addressed the outright issue of affordability that many face when trying to get a foot on the ladder. However it does, at least, mean that homebuyers are paying less than they may have otherwise while homeowners have still seen an increase in the value of their investment.”

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