Sustained outperformance in branded domestic formulation (DF) space coupled with enhanced opportunities in the API segment and additional business from institutional anti-Malaria segment show that IPCA has enough headroom to be on a strong earnings trajectory over the next 2-3 years.
We expect IPCA to end FY19 with earnings similar to that in FY14 (pre-import alert from USFDA); despite the USFDA issues being unresolved. This implies healthy performance in the branded generics segment. We raise our EPS estimate by 6%/7% to Rs 45.3/`54.4 for FY20/21.
We continue to value IPCA at 21x 12M forward earnings to arrive at a price target of Rs 1,145 (from Rs 970 earlier). Re-iterate ‘Buy’.
IPCA is well-placed to outperform the industry in the branded domestic formulation (DF) market (46% of sales), led by superior execution in Pain, Derma and Urology therapies. IPCA delivered 17% y-o-y growth in this segment for M9FY19 compared to industry growth of 9.5-10% during the same period. Though secondary sales data from AIOCD and brand analysis indicate that molecules in IPCA s Pain segment are well-established in terms of prescription, it is mainly the marketing effort of IPCA that has resulted in a strong brand recall among doctors.
The share of the Pain segment within DF has increased from 30% in FY12 to 45% at end-M9FY19. We expect IPCA to perform well in Derma and Urology on the back of introduction of new combinations and partly on a low base. Also, the share of Derma and Urology segment within DF has increased from 4% in FY12 to 9% at end-M9FY19. On an overall basis, we expect IPCA to deliver 16% sales CAGR at Rs 22 bn over FY19-21E.
We expect IPCA s institutional anti-Malaria business to revive meaningfully FY20 onwards led by re-orders from global fund and business from new molecules. IPCA is already selected for supplying medicines and is awaiting orders from GlobalFund. In addition, IPCA has also completed the registration process for supplying dispersible tablet (DT) of Artemether and Lumefantrine combinations. It is in process to complete registration for the injectable version of Artesunate.