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Q4 GDP: Indian Economy's Growth Slows To 3.1% In Jan-Mar 2020

Olga Robert

For the final quarter of the financial year 2019-20, the Indian economy grew at 3.1 percent, slowing down sharply from the previous quarter (October-December 2020) when the country's GDP grew at 4.7 percent.

GDP for the January-March period is estimated at Rs 38.04 lakh crore, as against Rs 36.90 lakh crore in the same period a year ago, showing a growth of 3.1 percent.

Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant price for the full year 2019-20 is now estimated to attain a level of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2018-19 of Rs 139.81 lakh crore, released on 31 January 2020. The growth in GDP during 2019-20 is estimated at 4.2 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in 2018-19.

The Per Capita Income in real terms during 2019-20 is estimated to be Rs 94,954 as compared to Rs 92,085 in the year 2018-19, a growth of 3.1 percent during 2019-20, as against 4.8 percent in the previous year.

The GDP growth data for the March ended quarter is an early indication of how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected the economy. The nationwide lockdown began towards the end of the quarter on 25 March and has been stretched to the most part of the first quarter of the financial year 2020-21.

In a poll of 52 economists conducted by Reuters between 20 and 25 May, India's economy was expected to grow at 2.1 percent in March ended quarter from the same period a year ago.

The better than estimated growth may bring cheer to the markets on Monday.

After the recent monetary policy meeting on 22 May, where RBI cut the repo rate to a record low of 4 percent, governor Shaktikanta Das said that he expects the GDP growth in the current financial year to remain in the negative category, with some pick up in the second half.

On 26 May, rating firm Crisil said that the Indian economy may shrink by 5 percent in FY 2020-21, adding this recession could be the country's fourth since Independence and perhaps the worst to date.

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