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All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Jan. 22

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Asian equities opened mixed on Monday and U.S. Treasuries were steady. The euro advanced on optimism Germany’s Angela Merkel has made a breakthrough toward her fourth term after months of stalement, while the dollar recovered from earlier lows as the federal government shutdown continued.

The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index’s performance in India, was a little changed at 10,911 as of 7:10 a.m.

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DayBreak

Here’s a quick look at all that could influence equities on Monday.

Global Cues

  • U.S. stocks shrugged off the government shutdown drama in Washington and rose to all-time highs following a report that regulators are close to further easing banking rules.
  • Treasury yields reached the highest level in more than three years.
  • The dollar advanced but still posted a sixth straight weekly loss.
  • The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to a record 2,810.31.
  • The MSCI All Country World Index gained 0.5 percent to an all-time high.

Europe Check

  • Germany’s Social Democrats backed formal coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel, boosting the euro.
  • Economists have brought forward their estimate of when the European Central Bank will set an end-date for its bond-buying program, reflecting a renewed push by some ECB officials to recognize that the strongest economic expansion in a decade will soon boost inflation.

Asian Cues

  • Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.5 percent.
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed.
  • Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.2 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.4 percent to a record Friday.
  • The MSCI All Country World Index gained 0.5 percent to an all-time high Friday. Its up more than 5 percent this year.

Here are some of the key events scheduled for this week:

  • Barring any last minute dramatics in Washington, President Donald Trump will join world leaders and senior executives in Davos, Switzerland, for the annual World Economic Forum.
  • Central banks: Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and briefing on Jan. 23; European Central Bank rate decision on Jan. 25.
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit bill is set to be taken up in the House of Lords.
  • Earnings season is in full swing: Netflix, UBS Group, Halliburton, Novartis, General Electric, Intel, LVMH Moet
  • Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Starbucks, Hyundai Motor and Fanuc Corp. are among companies posting results.
  • OPEC and partners, including Russia, will meet in Oman to review their strategy.
  • Foreign exchange traders are also watching China’s appetite for currency strength as the yuan rallies beyond the symbolically key level of 6.4 per dollar for the first time since December 2015.

Commodity Cues

  • Brent snaps two-day losing streak, up 0.3 percent to $68.8 per barrel,.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2 percent to $63.50 a barrel.
  • Gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,334.44 an ounce.
  • Sugar snapped three-day losing streak and ended higher at 13.25 cents per pound; up 1.3 percent.

Shanghai Exchange

  • Steel trades higher for fifth day; up 2.1 percent.
  • Aluminium trades lower; down 0.4 percent.
  • Zinc snaps four-day losing streak; up 0.6 percent.
  • Copper trades lower; down 0.6 percent.
  • Rubber trades lower for second day; down 0.2 percent.

Indian ADRs

Nifty Earnings To Watch

  • Asian Paints
  • Axis Bank

Other Earnings To Watch

  • Dewan Housing Finance
  • GNFC
  • Havells India
  • Justdial
  • Rallis India
  • Sasken Technologies
  • Vakrangee
  • V-Guard Industries
  • Tinplate

Earnings Reaction To Watch

Reliance Industries Q3 (QoQ)

  • Revenue up 7 percent at Rs 73,256 crore.
  • Net profit up 2 percent at Rs 8,454 crore.
  • EBITDA up 6 percent at Rs 13,744 crore.
  • Margin at 18.8 percent versus 18.9 percent.

Reliance Jio Q3 (QoQ)

  • Revenue up 12 percent to Rs 6,879 crore.
  • EBITDA up 82 percent to Rs 2,627 crore.
  • EBITDA margin at 38.2 percent versus 23.5 percent.
  • Net profit of Rs 504 crore versus net loss of Rs 271 crore.
  • ARPU of Rs 154 versus Rs 156.

Wipro Q3 (QoQ)

  • Revenue up 2 percent at Rs 13,669 crore.
  • Net profit down 12 percent at Rs 1,931 crore.
  • EBIT down 13 percent at Rs 1,959.5 crore.
  • Margins at 14.3 percent versus 16.8 percent.
  • Q4 IT services revenue seen in the range of $2.03 billion to $2.07 billion.

HDFC Life Q3 (YoY)

  • Net premium income up 19 percent at Rs 5,420 crore.
  • Net profit up 14.6 percent at Rs 207 crore versus Rs 180.6 crore.

Chennai Petroleum Corp Q3 (QoQ)

  • Revenue up 15 percent at Rs 8,587 crore.
  • Net profit up 22.5 percent at Rs 386 crore.
  • EBITDA up 31 percent at Rs 834 crore.
  • Margin at 9.7 percent versus 8.5 percent.

GNA Axles Q3 (YoY)

  • Revenue up 48 percent at Rs 167 crore.
  • Net profit up 57 percent at Rs 12.7 crore.
  • EBITDA up 37 percent at Rs 26 crore.
  • Margins at 15.6 percent versus 16.9 percent.

DCM Shriram Q3 (YoY)

  • Revenue up 30 percent at Rs 1,783.7 crore.
  • Net profit up 56 percent at Rs 213 crore.
  • EBITDA up 75 percent at Rs 329.8 crore.
  • Margin at 18.5 percent versus 13.8 percent.

Godawari Power Q3 (YoY)

  • Revenue up 57.6 percent at Rs 672 crore.
  • Net Profit at Rs 72 crore versus Rs 10 crore loss.
  • EBITDA up 87.8 percent at Rs 168.62 crore.
  • Margin at 25.1 percent versus 21.1 percent.

HOEC Q3 (YoY)

  • Revenue up 141 percent at Rs 13.3 crore.
  • Profit at Rs 12.8 crore.
  • EBITDA at Rs 12.9 crore from Rs 1.9 crore.
  • EBITDA margin at 97 percent from 34.5 percent.
  • Exceptional item of Rs 4.4 crore.

CDSL Q3 (YoY)

  • Income from operations up 37 percent at Rs 51.5 crore.
  • Profit up 25 percent at Rs 25.4 crore.
  • EBITDA up 58 percent at Rs 31.6 crore versus Rs 20 crore.
  • EBITDA margin at 61.4 percent versus 53.3 percent.

Lux Industries Q3 (YoY)

  • Revenues from operations up 28 percent at Rs 296 crore versus Rs 231 crore.
  • Profit up 30 percent at Rs 18.4 crore versus Rs 14.1 crore.
  • EBITDA up 28 percent at Rs 35.7 crore versus Rs 27.9 crore.
  • EBITDA margin at 12.1 percent versus 12.1 percent.

JP Associates Q3 (QoQ)

  • Revenue up 50 percent at Rs 1,109 crore.
  • Net loss at Rs 148 crore versus Rs 186 crore.
  • EBITDA up 269 percent at Rs 140.7 crore.
  • Margin at 12.7 percent versus 5.17 percent.

Stocks To Watch

  • ONGC to buy government’s 51.1 percent stake in HPCL for Rs 36,915 crore at Rs 473.97 per share.
  • Tata Steel to raise Rs 12,800 crore via rights issue.
  • J Kumar Infra gets Rs 57 crore contract from Delhi Metro Rail Corporation.
  • U.S. Department of Justice imposes $5 million fine on Dr. Reddy's over drugs not being in child-resistant packing.
  • Venus Remedies withdraws QIP issue due to unavoidable circumstances.
  • Bharti Airtel to transfer 25 percent stake in Bharti Telemedia to Nettle Infrastructure.
  • Orchid Pharma says NCLT grants extension of 90 days for insolvency process.
  • IFCI says government considering capital infusion of Rs 100 crore in FY18.
  • Reliance Industries to partly start petcoke gasification unit this quarter.
  • HDFC increases MTN program size to $1.3 billion.
  • DFM Foods launches new product in the domestic market.
  • Pioneer Distilleries says workmen have agreed to call off the strike on January 20.
  • Welspun Enterprises completes acquisition of 49 percent stake in the projects from MBL Group for a total consideration of Rs 2,300 crore.
  • IL& FS Transportation plans to sell Rs 4k crore project to Canada Pension Fund (Financial Express).
  • Vedanta, NCL, Torrent vie for GMR Energy’s plant in Chhatisgarh (Economic Times).
  • ONGC will use proceeds from GAIL, Indian Oil stake sale to buy HPCL (Economic TImes).

Bulk Deals

Sunteck Realty

  • Fidelity Emerging Markets Funds bought 47.05 lakh shares or 3.2 percent equity at an average of Rs 404.95 each.
  • Sri Gopikrishna Trust sold 39 lakh shares or 2.7 percent equity at an average of Rs 405.8 each.

GSS Infotech

  • Aspire Emerging Fund bought 8 lakh shares or 4.7 percent equity at Rs 33.28 each.

Emco Ltd

  • India Nivesh Capitals bought 4.2 lakh shares or 0.6 percent equity at Rs 20.18 each.

Shah Alloys

  • United India Insurance sold 1.30 lakh shares or 0.7 percent equity at Rs 18.5 each.

Insider Trades

  • Chaman Lal Setia promoter Sukarn Setia sold 3,600 shares from Jan.16–18.
  • Man Infraconstruction promoters acquire 72,000 shares on Jan. 18.
  • Pricol Promoter Gayathri Naidu sold 22,499 shares from Jan. 15–18.
  • Apex Frozen Foods Promoters acquire 17,360 shares from Jan. 16–17.

Rupee

  • Rupee closed at 63.85/dollar versus 63.86/dollar on Thursday.

IPO

  • Amber Enterprises India subscribed 165 times on final day.
  • Apollo Micro Systems lists today. Issue was subscribed 248 times. Base price Rs 275 per share.

Top Gainers And Losers

Index Trends

F&O Cues

  • Nifty January futures trading at 10,810.8, discount of 6.2 points from a premium of 3.3 points.
  • January Series: Nifty open interest unchanged; Bank Nifty open interest down 1 percent.
  • India VIX ended at 13.9, up 0.7 percent.
  • Max open interest for January series at 11,000 Call (open interest at 62.2 lakh, up 24 percent).
  • Max open interest for January series at 10,500 Put (open interest at 70 lakh, down 12 percent).

F&O Ban

  • In ban: Balrampur Chini, Dish TV, DLF, Fortis, GMR Infra, HCC, HDIL, IFCI, India Cement, Jain Irrigation, Kaveri Seed
  • New in ban: DLF
  • Out of ban: Capital First, Jindal Steel, JP Associates, Reliance Power

Only intraday positions can be taken in stocks which are in F&O ban. There is a penalty in case of a rollover of these intraday positions.

Put-Call Ratio

  • Nifty PCR at 1.64 from 1.75.
  • Nifty Bank PCR at 1.10 from 1.59.

Stocks Seeing High Open Interest Change

Fund Flows

Brokerage Radar

IDFC Securities on ONGC-HPCL

  • Lower premium a key positive for ONGC.
  • Price would set fair value benchmark; Positive for the stock.
  • Transaction to spur further consolidation in oil & gas space.
  • Expect IOCL to merge its subsidiary (CPCL), and/or buy government stake in Oil India.
  • Deal is EPS accretive for ONGC but leverage to increase.
  • Long term prospects for ONGC remain robust.
  • ONGC + HPCL to help price hedging objectives, but only partially.
  • Expect ONGC to see some near-term pressure, unless it decides to monetise stake in IOCL.

BOBCAPS on ONGC-HPCL

  • Expects deal to be entirely funded through debt.
  • Consolidated debt-to-equity ratio to increase to only 0.4 times versus 0.2 times.
  • Acquisition to give access to 26 percent return on capital employed business.
  • Expect no merger or operational synergies as HPCL will be an independent entity.
  • Acquisition to merely contribute as investment value.
  • Deal valuation well within fundamental parameters.
  • Deal creates a convenient template for other potential public-sector stake divestments.

Motilal Oswal on Reliance Industries

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 1,069.
  • Petchem drives standalone profitability; RJio turns profitable.
  • Lower throughput impacts refining performance.
  • Robust volume growth and healthy deltas drive profitability.
  • ARPUs to hover at Rs 144 in current quarter, led by recent cut.
  • Expect competitive intensity to remain high over 2-3 quarters.

IDBI Capital on Reliance Industries

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 1,100 from Rs 1,004.
  • Positive surprises continue.
  • December quarter results were better than expectation led by robust performance in petchem, retail and Jio.
  • Petchem profit drove the show; Jio continues to surprise positively.
  • Petcoke gasifiers to start from current quarter; outlook remains positive .

CLSA on Reliance Industries

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 1,125 from Rs 1,080.
  • Big beat on Jio and standalone EBIT with a stellar December quarter from retail.
  • Jio: Neat beat on revenue and operating income.
  • 2018 may turn out to be the year of monetisation.
  • Positives: full utilisation of Off Gas crackers, stabilisation of gasification project, ramp-up of JioPhone and start of broadband.

Credit Suisse on Jubilant Foodworks

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’; raised price target to Rs 2,750 from Rs 2,140.
  • Exceptionally strong on all fronts and expect it to sustain.
  • Jubilant has been seeing a fundamental turnaround.
  • Strong SSSG driven by orders even adjusted for GST.
  • EBITDA margins spike but cost and productivity initiatives have more headroom.
  • Management to refocus on growth in the next financial year.

CLSA on Jubilant Foodworks

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 2,800 from Rs 2,300.
  • Beating the most bullish estimate, SSSG of 17.8 percent is a huge positive.
  • Power of operating leverage played to its best.
  • Management sounded fairly positive in its outlook.
  • Expect earnings to grow at a CAGR of 38 percent over FY18-20.

Macquarie on HDFC Bank

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’; raised price target to Rs 2,676 from Rs 2,589.
  • Reported “boringly” consistent 20 percent YoY net profit growth.
  • Growth momentum strong, led by retail loans.
  • No challenges on divergences visible.
  • Structural shift in credit costs upwards.
  • Bank expects to gain market share from the bond market.
  • HDFC Bank is strong, powerful compounding story with no asset quality issues.
  • Expect strong earnings visibility and consistent high return ratios.

Morgan Stanley on HDFC Bank

  • Maintained ‘Overweight’ with price target of Rs 2,500.
  • Results show strong revenue/PPoP growth.
  • Steady asset quality trends.
  • CASA deposits grew given higher base following the spurt in deposits post demonetisation.

Credit Suisse on HCL Technologies

  • Maintained ‘Outperform’; raised price target to Rs 1,100 from Rs 1,050
  • Strong revenue growth in previous quarter; In-line margins
  • Continuing softness in infra but better outlook in the next financial year.
  • Continuing strength in engineering, and recovery in application services.
  • Good growth in financial services.
  • Expect reasonable growth, steady margins and attractive valuations.
  • Stock is well placed for 2018 as growth should be in line-to-ahead of peers.

Edelweiss on HCL Technologies

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 1,125 from Rs 1,041.
  • Growth led by America, ER&D; RoW and telecom key drags.
  • IMS down for second consecutive quarter.
  • Investments in IP partnership sustain.
  • Long-term prospects bright; ER&D to drive revenue.
  • See bright prospects in IMS though it has been weak.

Jefferies on ITC

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 320 from Rs 302.
  • December quarter results was a mixed bag.
  • Cigarettes, volumes soft with resilient margins.
  • FMCG showed strong all-round show.
  • Other businesses, hotels take the lead.
  • Expect gradual recovery in ITC cigarette volumes.
  • Expect better recovery in other businesses led by other FMCG.

Deutsche Bank on ITC

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 350 from Rs 325.
  • December quarter was another in-line quarter.
  • Cigarette volume declines 4 percent YoY, but flat QoQ.
  • FMCG-others reported healthy sales growth of 16 percent.
  • High probability of rational tax increase in Feb 2018 is a potential re-rating event.

Nomura on Kotak Mahindra Bank

  • Maintained ‘Neutral’; raised price target to Rs 1,150 from Rs 1,070.
  • Q3FY18 stable quarter with in-line net profit.
  • Bank continues to deliver on extracting cost efficiency.
  • Growth momentum steady; PPOP growth hit by weaker margins.
  • Excellent performance by capital market subsidiaries.
  • Prefer HDFC Bank to Kotak given undemanding valuations.

Macquarie on Kotak Mahindra Bank

  • Maintained ‘Neutral’; raised price target to Rs 1,111 from Rs 1,090.
  • Steady performance for the bank.
  • Subsidiaries post robust performances, especially securities and life insurance businesses.
  • Positive on bank’s business and the quality of management.
  • Valuations leave limited potential for upside.

Edelweiss on Wipro

  • Maintained ‘Hold’; raised price target to Rs 320 from Rs 280.
  • December quarter earnings came below estimates.
  • BFSI strengthening; client-specific issues in utility key drag.
  • Digital ticket size expanding.
  • Wipro’s revenue outlook has improved.
  • Sector in turnaround mode, but Wipro expensive.

Macquarie on Wipro

  • Maintained ‘Neutral’; cut price target to Rs 290 from Rs 300.
  • Mixed bag performance in previous quarter in segments.
  • Results continue to highlight volatility in growth.
  • Still some time away from reaching industry level growth.
  • EBIT Margin steady; Growth remains choppy.

Nomura on HDFC Standard Life

  • Maintained ‘Buy’ with price target of Rs 450.
  • Steady performance; Protection mix surprises.
  • Continues to improve on its leadership in protection business.
  • Embedded Value of Rs 14,400 crore and core RoEV of above 20 percent as of 9MFY17.
  • HDFC Life gained share in current fiscal after a loss in share in previous fiscal.
  • Expect steady performance to continue, given balanced product mix.

Deutsche Bank on ICICI Prudential Life

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 500 from Rs 490.
  • Strong uptick in margins in December quarter; APE growth slow.
  • Strong margin improvement but growth muted due to demonetisation base.
  • Higher margin should be sustained; Focus on increasing protection share.
  • Better placed to benefit from sector tailwinds.

Nomura on ICICI Prudential Life

  • Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 540 from Rs 490.
  • Big surprise on VNB margins.
  • More legroom for margin expansion.
  • ULIPs to remain unaffected by expected regulatory change.
  • Expect current fiscal margins at 14.7 percent and increase our long-term margin expectations to 16-16.5 percent.
  • ICICI Pru Life preferred insurance pick.

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