Vadakara Assembly Election 2021 | Vadakara, one of the seven Assembly seats under Vatakara Lok Sabha constituency, has a history of favouring socialist candidates in elections.
Neither the Congress nor the CPM have ever had their party candidates as representatives from the constituency. Their strategy has always been to back socialist leaders whom the locals might find acceptable. It is, however, unclear if the CPM will take the same route in the upcoming election. Reports have said that the CPM is considering fielding one of its own or taking a fresh pick from the constituency this time.
The JD(S) and JD(U), both of which are currently with the LDF, are reportedly making attempts to have the seat allotted to them. Incumbent MLA CK Nanu belongs to the JD(S) and has won the seat four times: thrice on a JD(S) ticket and once as a Janata Dal candidate.
The Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP), which had supported Congress during the 2019 Vatakara Lok Sabha election, has confirmed that it will field a candidate in the Assembly election.
Initially, KK Renu, wife of late RMP founder TP Chandrasekharan, was rumoured to run for office in the election. However, the RMP is now planning to field its state president N Venu with the hope of getting UDF's support.
Since RMP backed Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2020 local body elections, there's a great chance the alliance might continue.
Vadakara will vote on 6 April, 2021, along with 139 other constituencies in the state.
Past election results and winners
JD(S) leader CK Nanu had his fourth Vadakara-seat win in 2016, defeating JD(U)'s Manayath Chandran by a 9,511-vote margin. Nanu secured 49,211 votes, while Chandran polled 39,700 votes. KK Rema, who was in the fray as an Independent candidate, came third with 20,504 votes.
Total electors, voter turnout, population
Electors: Vadakara Assembly constituency has 1,61,641 registered electors who can vote in the upcoming 2021 election. The constituency has 76,946 male voters, 84,694 female and one third-gender voter. The constituency will have 148 polling stations.
Voter turnout: In 2011, 1.13 lakh of the 1.41 registered voters in Vadakara exercised their franchise. Polling was 80.46 percent in 2011, which slightly rose to 81.2 percent in 2016. A total of 1.26 lakh voters showed up to cast their vote in 2016, of whom 57,983 were male and 70,725 were female.
Population: The Assembly constituency is made of Vadakara municipality, and Azhiyur, Chorode, Eramala and Onchiam panchayats.
As per Census 2011, of Kerala's 3.34 crore population, 54.73 percent are followers of Hinduism, followed by 26.56 percent followers of Islam and 18.38 percent Christians. Hinduism is the major religion in 13 of the state's 14 districts.
Malappuram is the only district in Kerala where Islam is the major religion with 70.24 percent of the district's total population following the religion.
The state has a tiny population that follows Jainism (0.01 percent), Sikhism (0.01 percent), Buddhism (0.01 percent) and 0.02 percent (other religions). Nearly 0.26 percent in the state didn't state their religion during the 2011 Census.
Election date and timing
The Kerala Assembly/Niyama Sabha polls will be held on 6 April, 2021, along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The day will also see phase three polls in Assam and West Bengal.
The Kerala Legislative Assembly (Vidhan Sabha) has a total number of 140 seats, of which, 14 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Castes and two seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes.
The outgoing Assembly has eight female MLAs and rest 132 are male MLAs. The current Kerala Niyamasabha session will expire on 1 June, 2021.
Political alliances in Kerala
Elections in Kerala have traditionally been a contest between the UDF and the LDF with power swinging between the two groups.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Congress-led UDF had won 19 out of the state's 20 Lok Sabha seats banking on incumbency against the ruling LDF. However, repeating a similar feat in the Assembly polls is going to be an uphill task for the UDF.
The LDF has not only managed to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2020 local body polls but also managed to make inroads into UDF vote banks, particularly in Thrissur, Ernakulam, and Kottayam districts.
The NDA, which is emerging as a third front in Kerala, will be hoping to increase its tally in the Assembly polls. However, given that the BJP-led NDA didn't meet the expectations in the 2020 local body polls despite making gains, its ability to impact either the UDF's or LDF's prospects in the Assembly election remains unclear.
Of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency, five are with the CPM-led LDF (four with CPM, and one with CPI) while IUML, a constituent of the Congress-led UDF, is the second-largest party, winning the remaining two seats (Kasaragod and Manjeshwaram) in the last Assembly polls.
BJP didn't win any of the seven Assembly segments that are part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary constituency in 2016.