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Farm relief: Cotton output for 2019-20 estimated at 355 lakh bales

FE Bureau
Cotton output, CAI, Cotton output 2019-20, USDA, Imports of cotton, Cotton exports

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its first estimate of the cotton crop for the season of 2019-20 beginning October 1, 2019 at 354.50 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). This is higher by 42.50 lakh bales as compared to the previous year's crop of 312 lakh bales. According to the association, this is a preliminary estimate. The CAI will reassess the crop again in the first week of December as the season advances and make changes in the crop figures depending on the improvement or worsening of weather conditions.

"The increase in crop estimated for the 2019-20 season is on account of higher acreage under cotton than that of the previous season. Moreover, the CAI estimates yields to be higher as the country has received a good rainfall this yea, said Atul Ganatra, president, CAI.  However, there are reports of damage to the crop in some pockets due to flooding on account of excess rains, he said, adding that keeping this in mind, increase in crop has been restricted to 13.62%.

However, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its outlook on India's cotton crop released last month, had estimated India's cotton crop at 305 lakh US bales (of 217.7 kg each), which works out to 390 lakh India bales (of 170 kg each).

The annual balance sheet projected by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season i.e. up to September 30, 2020 at 403 lakh bales which consists of the opening stock of 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, crop for the season estimated at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 25 lakh bales.

The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the 2019-20 crop year i.e. up to September 30, 2020 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated export of cotton for the season at 42 lakh bales. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 46 lakh bales.

The Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) met on November 4, 2019. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee arrived at its first estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on October 1, 2019 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet.

Cotton exports for the season are estimated at 42 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as in the previous year. Imports of cotton are projected at 25 lakh bales which are lower by 7 lakh bales compared to the cotton imports of 32 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) estimated by the CAI for the previous year. The annual consumption estimated by the CAI is 315 lakh bales which is higher by 3.5 lakh bales compared to the previous cotton season, according to the committee members. The Indian cotton arrivals for the month of October 2019 are estimated at 13.40 lakh bales. The total closing stock estimated by the CAI at the close of the cotton season 2019-20 is 46 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) which is higher by 22.50 lakh bales than that estimated for the last year.