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Double blow for stock market: Credit Suisse downgrades India two steps in model portfolio

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In what could be a blow to the stock market, global firm Credit Suisse has downgraded India amid the ongoing economic slowdown. Credit Suisse has downgraded Indian market to number 8th position from 6th spot earlier. "We downgrade India on a fall in our scorecard and macro disappointment. India falls to number 8 from 6 in model portfolio," Dan Fineman, Co-Head of Equity Strategy, Asia Pacific, Credit Suisse said in a note. Following the development, India's weight in now down to 'marketweight.' In August, Credit Suisse had upgraded Indian market to a ‘small overweight’ from ‘marketweight’ owing to improvement in valuations relative to Asian markets. “Falling inflation opens ample policy space for rate cuts and EPS is proving more resilient than for the region as a whole,” Credit Suisse had said.

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While Credit Suisse feels that the global monetary easing will continue to help India more than most Asian markets, the ongoing slowdown in the the economy is leading to the latest downgrade. "The depth of economic downturn is beginning to translate to EPS cuts just as forecasts for previously hard-hit North Asian markets are stabilising," Fineman said. Following the revision, Korea is no longer doing worse than India and has been  upgrade to Overweight.

Last week, India's Apr-June GDP growth plunged to 5%, the lowest in last 6-years. With GDP growth falling consecutively for the fifth time, India has slipped to fourth position globally in terms of real growth rates. The Indian economy is now behind China, the Philippines and Indonesia. India had lost the tag of world's fastest growing economy after GDP growth fell to 5.8% in the Jan-Mar 2019 period. The declaration in private consumption largely contributed to such a substantial fall in the GDP number. RBI had projected India’s GDP growth for FY20 at 6.9 per cent, in the range of 5.8-6.6 per cent for the first half and 7.3-7.5 per cent for the second half of FY20. The government has already announced a slew of measures last week to boost demand in the economy.