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Did GAIL (India)'s (NSE:GAIL) Share Price Deserve to Gain 60%?

Simply Wall St

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The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market But GAIL (India) Limited (NSE:GAIL) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 60% over five years, which is below the market return. The last year hasn't been great either, with the stock up just 0.7%.

Check out our latest analysis for GAIL (India)

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, GAIL (India) managed to grow its earnings per share at 1.9% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 9.9% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NSEI:GAIL Past and Future Earnings, May 6th 2019

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on GAIL (India)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, GAIL (India)'s TSR for the last 5 years was 79%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that GAIL (India) shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 3.1% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 12% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. Before forming an opinion on GAIL (India) you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.