The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has retained its crop estimate for 2018-19 at 312 lakh bales. In its July estimate released here on Friday, CAI has maintained crop estimate for the northern zone at the same level as in its previous month's estimate of 59 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) while estimate for the central zone has been increased by 50,000 bales.
There is an increase of 1 lakh bale in the cotton crop estimate for Gujarat to 87 lakh bales as compared to the estimate of 86 lakh bales made by the CAI during last month while there is a reduction of 50,000 bales in the estimate for Maharashtra to 70.50 lakh bales as compared to 71 lakh bales estimated earlier.
Also, there is a reduction of 50,000 bales in the crop estimate for Tamil Nadu compared to the previous month's estimate. The total cotton supply during the period from October 2018 to July 2019 is 353.80 lakh bales, which consists of arrival of 305.52 lakh bales up to 31st July 2019, imports of 15.28 lakh bales up to 31st July 2019 and the opening stock estimated at 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during October 2018 to July 2019 at 263.50 lakh bales while the export of cotton estimated by the CAI up to 31st July 2019 is 44.50 lakh bales. Stock at the end of July 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 45.80 lakh bales, including 25.86 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 19.94 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, among others).
There is no change in the projection of cotton export for the season and the same is retained at 46 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously. There is no change in the projection of import of cotton and the same is also retained at 31 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously, according to the crop committee of the association that had met earlier. The annual consumption estimated by the CAI is also retained at the same level as in the previous month at 315 lakh bales.
Indian cotton arrivals during October 2018 to July 2019 are estimated at 305.52 lakh bales. Around 98% of the total crop for the ongoing season has already arrived in the market.
The annual balance sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till the end of cotton season (up to September 30, 2019) at 376 lakh bales, consisting of the opening stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports at 31 lakh bales, which are higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year's estimate at 15 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year is 315 lakh bales while for the season it is 46 lakh bales, lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year's cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 15 lakh bales. Shipment of imports from October 1, 2018 to July 31, 2019, which have reached Indian ports are estimated at 15.28 lakh bales while balance 15.72 lakh bales are estimated to arrive during the period from August 1, 2019 to September 30, 2019 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 31 lakh bales).
Cotton export shipments from October 1, 2018 to July 31, 2019, which have already been shipped, are estimated at 44.50 lakh bales while balance 1.50 lakh bales are expected to be shipped during the period from August 1, 2019 to September 30, 2019 (total exports estimated during the entire season are 46 lakh bales).
The consumption by Indian spinning mills for 10 months from October 1, 2018 to July 31, 2019 is estimated at 263.50 lakh bales. Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on July 31, 2019 is estimated at 25.86 lakh bales.
CCI, MNCs, ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of 19.94 lakh bales as on July 31, 2019 which is equal to about 21 lakh running bales. Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on July 31, 2019 is estimated at 45.80 lakh bales, which is equal to about 49 lakh bales. Due to small crop size and very tight cotton balance sheet, stock as on September 30, 2019 is estimated by the Committee at 15 lakh bales.