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Budget 2019: Will stock markets see pre-budget rally?

Ashish Pandey
Budget 2019, Union Budget 2019 India, Budget 2019 India, Budget 2019-20

Union Budget 2019 India: With less than a month remaining for full budget presentation for FY20 on July 5, the stock market analysts hold a divided opinion on a possible pre-budget market rally. A section believes that a rally is on cards as the domestic stock markets are already behind the global peers, even after strong electoral results. Markets are set up well for a Pre Budget rally. Most global markets have rallied over the last 10 days. India has lagged behind despite a strong electoral verdict, a good MPC policy and strong global cues. This has mainly been due to the brewing NBFC Crisis and newsflow around DHFL, independent investment advisor Sandip Sabharwal told Financial Express Online. The investors however should be able to get over this and start participating now given the global outlook, he also said.

On the other hand, a few are not hopeful of a pre-budget rally in run up to July 5. In fact, the markets may behave weak in the coming days, technical analyst Milan Vaishnav told Financial Express Online. I do not expect a major pre-budget rally to happen. While heading to general election results and having seen the BJP retaining a strong government at the center, I feel that the bulk of the expectations have been discounted for and no major up move should happen before the budget. On the other hand, in fact, Markets are showing some explicit signs of fatigue, he said.

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The fractured market breadth, failure to confirm the attempted breakout by NIFTY despite marking incremental highs, persistent bearish divergences against the lead indicators, among others rather point towards some prolonged consolidation move in the stock markets, he added.

Meanwhile, Sensex has surged nearly 2 per cent since the start of May, and scaled an all-time high of 40,308 on June 3.