A revival of exports in the Indian economy is long overdue, according to Nomura. Referring to the HSBC PMI index, Nomura has stated that a sustained increase in export orders suggests that a reversal is around the corner.
For the first time since late 2009, exports shrank in March by 5.7% to $28.68 billion from $30.41 in March 2011.From a peak of 82% in July; export growth had slipped to 44.25% in August, 36.36% in September, 10.8% in October and 3.8% in November 2011. However, exports grew 6.7% in December 2011, over 10% in January 2012 and 4.3% in February.
Nomura is of the opinion that the fall in exports has largely been due to the European debt crisis and slower Chinese growth. Now with the US economy showing some signs of recovery and the lagged effects of rupee depreciation, revival in exports is likely. Industrial growth is also expected to pick up in the coming months.
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