• Reforms and the Great Divide

    The two-decade-old history of economic reforms in India is uneven. Reforms were undertaken in 1991 under duress and this has been the story since then. Though every government since 1991 has embraced economic reforms, the impression that national consensus has backed economic reforms is erroneous. The fact of the matter is that there is no consensus on economic reforms within the various political parties and across the political spectrum; the Left parties remain stubbornly opposed to them and the people at large are completely indifferent.

    Every government, therefore, adopts a minimalist approach and does only what is pressing and unavoidable. There is no doubt that India has travelled far as an economic power after the initiation of economic reforms. The new normal for GDP growth is 8-9 per cent; anything less creates the impression of a crisis. In the economic field, reforms have definitely succeeded, but in the political arena they have been a total failure. Finance ministers of

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  • Shaky Pillars

    somnath-chatterjee-030112-630

    What I am worried about is the way our most important three organs are functioning in this country, as well as the media, I must confess. It seems that everybody wants more power than the Constitution has given them. Or people are not interested in discharging the obligations which the constitution has imposed on them.

    I think judicial overreach is a matter of great concern. I have repeatedly said that matters of policy are for the government, not for the Courts. But today not only matters of policy, we are deciding what punishments should be given, what sort of fine government should impose, how much compensation should be given by the government to A, how much should be given to B, what sort of laws to be passed. I mean, anything and everything under the Sun. I have said in my speeches that even the dresses of school teachers are being decided by the courts.

    Even investigations are being carried out under the Supreme Court's supervision. I don't know the expertise of

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  • Change is in the air

    Being cynical is the safest bet you can take on India unless, of course, you are either of the two Singhs conducting our great economy -- which seems to be tanking, too. But if the topic is governance and corruption, cynicism, which is founded on decades of underachievement and utter failure, is also wisdom.

    Who can challenge you when you say nothing works in this country, nothing will ever change, we are all like this only, this country has no hope…. so will you stop bothering me while I bend a few rules please, thank you?

    Nobody. A billion plus nobodies, actually.

    The answer to what will come out of Anna Hazare and his Jan Lokpal agitation is easy: nothing, or at any rate, not much. Even Anna's supporters would have taken to the streets half in hope of change and half in expectation of failure. Decades of repudiation trains them to do that. If the "system" gets the better of Anna, they can always seek solace in the comfort of their cynical half.

    Of course, after Singh Senior is done

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  • Will foreigners investing decrease market volatility?

    A finance ministry official says "If foreigners are allowed to invest directly in India, volatility will go down in Indian markets". I am completely unable to understand this.

    Like I cannot understand what is wrong with Intra day or Intra month volatility! Markets have always been volatile — the question is how volatile that is all. We should also stop this excessive 'foreign' syndrome. The hangover of the gora just refuses to go away.

    Let us look at FDI in retail. We allowed FDI in banking — we now have only  foreign banks in India — other than the PSU banks that is. Has it helped in banking? We have had FDI in mutual funds — at least for the past 20 years — has it helped in penetrating the rural markets? We have FDI in life and general insurance….same answer is it not? L O L.

    Then we thought we need FDI in retail (I guess this was a ploy to hold the real estate price high) — but somebody said it was to tackle the runaway valuation of the US dollars!!

    Now imagine the foreigner wanting

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  • How will the Sensex fare in 2012

    The Sensex may have given 19% returns over 33 years, however, it may not have given 19% in any particular year! This is fairly simple — the standard deviation is quite high, and good years are followed by bad years. Simple.

    In the year 2011 the Sensex's performance looked bad because of the poor performance of Reliance, L&T, Infosys, ICICI, SBI while HUL, ITC stocks did well.

    Unfortunately, for Sensex watchers Reliance and Infosys — both very good P/E managers — and perhaps EPS (earning per share) managers too — seem to be in their mid life or descent. This means that even with all their media management, the market's respect for these companies (read PE) is not likely to increase in the near future. Infosys is in a mature industry with not too many entry barriers and Reliance, well, is Reliance!

    ICICI bank does not have a single promoter — this means there is no single person 'managing' the P/E and its EPS is not really respected. The NPA (non performing assets) of ICICI bank and SBI

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