• The Rupee has breached new lows while the dollar continues to strengthen to Rs 54 and more. Indeed, the December quarter has already seen a drop of more than 10%, after another 10% fall in the previous quarter. But what has caused the rupee to fall?

    The "Current Account" deficit

    That's what you hear about. We import things. We export other things. Our beloved NRIs send money home ("remittances"). We pay interest on borrowings from abroad. If you sum these up, you get a "current account" balance which is, for India, usually negative.

    From April to November 2011, India exported $192.7 billion worth of goods, while imports were $309 billion. The trade deficit is thus more than $116 billion. Adding transfer payments and software services, the "current account deficit" is about $70 billion for the first seven months of the year.

    Much of the deficit is fuel — we have already imported $70 billion worth of oil this year (we import 2/3rd of what we use).

    The fact that we run a current account

    Read More »from Protecting the rupee by freeing it
  • euro-summit-600-121211

    Twenty six of the 27 European nations decided to move forward with "tighter integration" and a closer "fiscal union" which seems to have cheered markets tremendously. (The lone dissenter was the UK.) These grandiose statements provide way too little detail in exactly how such a pact would work, and be palatable to the vast electorate at the same time.

    The idea is that a tighter control of both spending and taxes by a central body will ensure that no country will go overboard and thus harm the Euro. The central body would almost surely be loaded towards Germany and France, and why would a Greece, a Holland or a Portugal allow such a body to not just determine how much tax they would pay, but also how much they can spend and on what? It is highly unlikely that just because German and French banks own the debt of certain countries, that Germany and France will be allowed to violate their sovereignty; although it is a big statement, I doubt everyone will see eye-to-eye when Germany

    Read More »from What To Make Of The Great EU Announcement
  • The government has not been able to divest public sector company shares in the market, due to depressed investor sentiment as markets have fallen over 20% in the year. The lack of this "extra" revenue means that total government receipts — or "income" — have fallen 18% compared to last year (as of October 2011). With expenditure growing at 10%, the fiscal deficit is at Rs. 3  lakh crore, which is already about 4% of GDP. It is only expected to grow.

    Last year, a significant amount of revenue came from non-tax income. A Rs 100,000 cr windfall was made from the spectrum auctions to telecom companies, and another Rs 22,000 cr came from divestments in government owned enterprises like Coal India, SAIL, and MOIL. The divestment target for FY 2011-12 was Rs 40,000 cr, of which the government has only managed a little more than Rs 1,100 cr through a follow on offer of PFC.

    Recently the government has been asking public sector companies to buy back their shares to help plug the fiscal deficit.

    Read More »from Buying Back Our Deficit
  • The Derivative Alternative

    While derivatives have been called weapons of mass destruction and worse, they can provide alternative methods to participate in the markets. To a bystander, these instruments seem complex — and some indeed are so, with SEBI now requiring brokers to ensure that investors are financially capable of handling themselves before they can trade derivatives.

    An alternative way to buying stock is to use a "future". Instead of having to buy equity into a company and paying up the full amount of money, we use a derivative and buy the future instead, paying only a margin amount upfront, and putting the rest of the money as cash, which can earn interest in a liquid mutual fund. I tracked the stock of ICICI Bank, bought directly versus buying with a future, since 2006:

    ICICI

    I've assumed a single lot of 250 shares, bought for about Rs. 150,000 in 2006, that returns, with dividends. (further assumptions — 30% margins, and the return on cash is 5%)

    The futures approach is 10% higher in terms

    Read More »from The Derivative Alternative
  • Infosys Q2 results beat expectations: An analysis

    Infosys announced Q2 results (September 2011) today, beating expectations substantially. Revenues were up 8% from last quarter to 8099 cr. and Net profits up 9.73% from last year, to 1906 cr.

    The stock is up 5% and has lifted the index up with it, with both the Nifty and Sensex up 1%.

    Revenues and Profits

    Revenues_and_profits_Infy

    Revenue growth has returned but much of the spike is from the strong dollar. In dollar terms, Revenues grew 4.5% (QoQ) — the remaining has come from the dollar move. The USD-INR equation has moved 4% in their favour (from an average of 44.78 to 46.3)

    Despite the dollar move, the EPS growth wasn't impressive; at 9.7% in rupee terms and 9.9% in dollar terms, year on year, EPS growth looks incredibly small given that the dollar has risen. Since 54% of Infy's revenues come from onsite work, those expenses are also in dollars, which negates ,to a certain extent, the rise in the dollar.

    Employees and Attrition

    employee_attrition_infy

    September is usually a great quarter for hiring and this one was no

    Read More »from Infosys Q2 results beat expectations: An analysis

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Deepak Shenoy has built technology companies and now trades and writes about the Indian financial markets. He has built and deployed algorithmic trading systems and continues to work with back-testing, refining and enhancing trading through technology. He blogs at [link: http://capitalmind.in]Capital Mind and runs [link: http://marketvision.in]MarketVision, a financial knowledge company.

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