• While we are battered with news about abandoned babies, victories and then losses for telecom firms, elections in UP and surging stock markets, it's useful to note the quietly released data on the fiscal deficit that are seriously alarming.

    The Comptroller General of Accounts (CGA) has reported that the government revenue, from April to December 2011, is 15% lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, total expenditure is up 14%. Higher spending and lower revenue point to a fiscal deficit that is more than double last year's figures, till December.

    Indian Central government

    Advance Taxes Are Not Enough

    December, was when corporates (and individuals) pay another chunk of advance tax. This should have bolstered government revenues, but it seemingly has not. Total tax revenue in December, net of what was paid to the states, was Rs 99,944 crores, just 5.3% above the previous year. For the April to December time period, tax collections are just 7.5% higher.

    Consider that India's Gross Domestic Product has

    Read More »from Why is India’s fiscal deficit so high?
  • "Inflation is when you pay Rs. 100 for the fifty rupee haircut you used to get for 25 rupees when you had hair"; a quote I received on twitter. In India, when we speak of inflation, we've never really talked about haircuts. No, I'm serious, stick with me.

    The Inflation Index that our country talks about is based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which is a weighted sum of product prices at the wholesale level. That means stuff that you can buy at wholesale markets, such as vegetables, copper, fuel, or even liquor. But it doesn't include the cost of services; the WPI will indicate the cost of vegetables and meat to your favourite restaurant, but it won't add up the cost of chef/waiters' salaries, rent of the premises, air-conditioning costs and valet parking. In the haircut example, they'll note that the scissors or shampoo got more expensive, not that the haircut costs you more.

    The world over, what is used is a Consumer Price Index (CPI), which uses a basket of goods that you are

    Read More »from Consumer Prices: A Better Inflation Indicator
  • Many of us desire to make money from the stock markets, because it doesn't seem to take a lot of skill. After all, like a casino, all you need is one good trade. That's what we read about — the success stories of investing talk about how Warren Buffett bought into Coke, or Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought Titan, or Paulson shorted sub-prime mortgages or such.

    While these investors — and many others — have benefited from the huge success of a few stocks, there are thousands, even millions, of other investors who lost much of their money chasing performance. And not just speculating, but even with deep, well researched analysis. A stock that seemed like a steal three years ago is still a steal; they have higher profits, and a lower stock price. In another ten years, they might still have the same stock price. The "value trap" attracts people who think luck plays no role in investing, that all it takes is good analysis.  Value traps are lessons you don't learn about in books; real life teaches

    Read More »from The School Of Hard Knocks
  • In a recent trader meet, a speaker asked on stage where the market closed last. Answers were "4714" and other figures around the 4700 number, but the speaker was looking for another answer. It dawned on us soon that he was looking for the Sensex, which none of us knew even to the closest one thousand. It was around 15,700, said the speaker, dismayed at the total lack of awareness because his slide said "Sensex: The Index The World Tracks".

    To a certain extent, that remains true. People do talk about the Sensex. "I'll be a buyer below 16,000", you hear. Newspapers and TV channels cheer the appearance of "20,000", a number only associated with the Sensex.

    But the irrelevance is mostly to the trading community. Volumes have deserted the Bombay Stock Exchange, for the "better" deal at the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Looking at the "cash" turnover, the gap between the two exchanges has widened from 2000 onwards.

    New Image

    What has changed since 2000? For one, the derivatives market has

    Read More »from The Irrelevance Of The Sensex
  • The Year 2011

    2011 would be best forgotten by the Indian markets. Stocks have fallen around 25%, making it the second worst year in market history, after 2008's drop of 52%.

    The rupee has fallen another 20% against the dollar. Petrol prices are so high that pumps now sell it in ink droppers. The government has, with little prompting, carefully applied egg on its own face. Corporate profits are dropping dramatically, and RBI continues to hold interest rates high, because honestly that's the only thing that's they can keep high in this country.

    Europe has decided that each country will take its turn being in the news, so after we were bored of Greece, Portugal and Spain, Italy took centrestage. The concept of what actually happened is so complicated that if we unravel it in a single article, your computer will explode. What it means in the end is that when you mention " is in trouble", very smart and sophisticated people in the financial industry will nod their head and

    Read More »from The Year 2011

Pagination

(36 Stories)

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Deepak Shenoy has built technology companies and now trades and writes about the Indian financial markets. He has built and deployed algorithmic trading systems and continues to work with back-testing, refining and enhancing trading through technology. He blogs at [link: http://capitalmind.in]Capital Mind and runs [link: http://marketvision.in]MarketVision, a financial knowledge company.

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