• The Drachma Drama

    Two years ago, there was a crisis in Greece, when it couldn't pay back debt that it had taken. The government's debt was 120% of GDP then. The country simply couldn't afford to pay back its loans, and the impact would have been felt all over Europe, where banks and funds had lent to Greek institutions and to the Greek government. Greece wasn't the only one in trouble — Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain were also in the now-infamous acronym for countries in trouble, PIIGS.

    The initial reaction to the problems in Greece was to give them more money to help them pay back what they owed. A 120 billion Euro package first materialized on the promise, by the Greeks, that they'd try to earn more money from taxes and spend less. The problem? More than 50% of the Greek economy was from government spending, and reducing that meant that lots of Greek people would earn lesser and thus pay lesser taxes. The "black" or unaccounted economy in Greece remains very large, with people preferring to not

    Read More »from The Drachma Drama
  • Is "cheap" good, when you're making losses? In general, people like cheap. As in "inexpensive", not "shoddy". Prices can get lower for many reasons. Competition can force price cuts — either you compete or customers leave you. You can get greater productivity — producing more at the same price means you can charge lesser. You can lock in the price of your raw materials and retain customer prices at the same level.

    Let's look at a few industries where, over a long period, prices haven't changed or have actually come down.

    The most obvious is electronics. About 15 years ago, I paid Rs. 65,000 for a mid-level computer, and I'd probably pay about Rs. 25,000 today. Prices of chips fall, even as they add more computing power. Even as prices have dropped, profits of semiconductor companies have stayed high; volumes and efficiencies more than made up for increase in raw material costs or labour.

    The car market has also managed to maintain prices, for the most part. A Hyundai Accent (one of the

    Read More »from Of Losses and Low Prices
  • On Friday, 20th April 2012, two mysterious events occurred on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). In the morning, Infosys futures crashed over 20% and quickly recovered back to the original level. In the afternoon, just before 2:30pm, Nifty futures crashed 6.7% from the 5,350 level back down to 5,000, and then nearly instantly recovered back to 5200. Both crashes were blamed on algorithmic trading.

    Program trading has been blamed for "flash crashes" for nearly 25 years. In October 1987, US markets took a nose dive on a single day and for years, the blame game went on with the primary suspect being program trades. This is understandable. Since a computer can trade with much faster speed than a human, it can set off a spiralling price change by continuously buying or selling with no real control. Why then, should we even allow algorithmic trading?

    Program trading can provide for great trading opportunities with less human error. Much of the arbitrage that used to happen in Indian markets

    Read More »from Why We Shouldn’t Ban Algorithmic Trading
  • Much has already been written about a new proposal in the Budget, where a private company is required to "justify" the valuation it receives when an Indian resident investor buys shares in it. This doesn't apply to public companies, or those in which the investment is by a venture capital fund. It also doesn't apply if you buy shares at "par" — that is, at the face value of the shares.

    When a company is created, shares are issued to the initial investors at face value, in proportion to their investment. For example, take a company started with 100,000 rupees, with two founders putting in Rs. 60,000 and Rs. 40,000. Each will get 6,000 and 4,000 will get shares of Rs. 10 face value, respectively, for a total of 10,000 shares.

    The founders work for 6 months and build a prototype for a software to revolutionize online payments. They demonstrate this, with a business plan, to an angel investor, asking for Rs. 20 lakh as an investment to hire people, buy some equipment and for marketing.

    At

    Read More »from Taxing Our Startups
  • India may be a poor country but we all differ on what "poor" is. There was a furore last year when a per-capita income of Rs. 32 a day was considered "poor" — because Rs. 32 buys you nearly nothing these days. But that is hardly true if you consider the average size of a household is four, and that this means the per-household line for poverty is Rs. 128 per day. There is a more substantial Rs. 3,800 per month, a figure that most of the people, who were outraged at the Rs. 32 per day, will find their household help earns per month. (And in fact, around what the much-maligned rural employment guarantee scheme provides for one household member for 100 days a year)

    "Poor" is what you make of it. At a broad level, being poor means the inability to afford what one would consider a basic necessity or standard of living. What I might consider a basic necessity will be different from someone else's; if I think access to clean toilets are a basic human need, someone else might argue that there

    Read More »from Defining India’s Poor

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Deepak Shenoy has built technology companies and now trades and writes about the Indian financial markets. He has built and deployed algorithmic trading systems and continues to work with back-testing, refining and enhancing trading through technology. He blogs at [link: http://capitalmind.in]Capital Mind and runs [link: http://marketvision.in]MarketVision, a financial knowledge company.

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